26 Jun · 17:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WP
🇵🇱Wiktor Ptak
ELO 1540
FormWWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Oracz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1601
FormLLWLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+61
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)