26 Jun · 18:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MN
🇵🇱Michal Natkaniec
ELO 1456
FormWWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Zelezik
JZ
🇵🇱Jacek Zelezik
ELO 1520
FormLLWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Zelezik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+64
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)