27 Jun · 05:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1648
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Nowalinski
AS
🇵🇱Adrian Spychala
ELO 1601
FormLWLWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Nowalinski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H65-33
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (65-33)