26 Jun · 19:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1593
FormWLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Pawlik
JZ
🇵🇱Jacek Zelezik
ELO 1529
FormWLLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+64
H2H6-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-4)