26 Jun · 20:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1585
FormLWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pawlik
ML
🇵🇱Miroslaw Lewczuk
ELO 1546
FormLLWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+39
H2H9-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.