26 Jun · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1400
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Golaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1368
FormLLWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+32
H2H9-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.