26 Jun · 22:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1353
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Slosarczyk
PS
🇵🇱Pawel Slosarczyk
ELO 1415
FormLLLLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Slosarczyk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+62
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)