26 Jun · 23:10 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MN
🇵🇱Michal Natkaniec
ELO 1450
FormLLWLL
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Zelezik
JZ
🇵🇱Jacek Zelezik
ELO 1539
FormLWWWL
40%
60%
Fair odds · Zelezik
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
23%
2-3
20%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+89
H2H5-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+89)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-2)