26 Jun · 23:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1596
FormWWLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1647
FormWLLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H8-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-5)