27 Jun · 01:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Miroslaw Lewczuk
ELO 1559
FormWWLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1636
FormLWLLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+77
H2H32-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-12)