27 Jun · 02:00 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MN
🇵🇱Michal Natkaniec
ELO 1449
FormLWLLW
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Lewczuk
ML
🇵🇱Miroslaw Lewczuk
ELO 1559
FormWWLLL
38%
62%
Fair odds · Lewczuk
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
23%
2-3
20%
0-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-1
14%
Elo Gap+110
H2H17-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+110)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-9)