27 Jun · 02:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1702
FormLLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Oracz
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1644
FormWLWLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 68% · 1.46· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+58
H2H30-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-22)