27 Jun · 03:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1399
FormWLWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Warpas
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1455
FormWWLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+56
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)