27 Jun · 04:45 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MN
🇵🇱Michal Natkaniec
ELO 1439
FormLLLWL
71%Win chancemodel fair 1.41Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1639
FormWLWLW
29%
71%
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 71% · 1.41vsMarket 70% · 1.43· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~76 pts
1-3
27%
0-3
23%
2-3
21%
3-2
13%
3-1
11%
Elo Gap+200
H2H17-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+200)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-7)