27 Jun · 07:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1460
FormWWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Misiak
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1407
FormLWWWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+53
H2H12-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-7)