27 Jun · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1449
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Misiak
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1434
FormWWWLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+15
H2H12-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.