27 Jun · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1328
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1362
FormLLWLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.77· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+34
H2H49-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.