27 Jun · 15:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LB
🇵🇱Lukasz Bernacki
ELO 1481
FormLWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Bernacki
SJ
🇵🇱Sebastian Juzek
ELO 1395
FormLLLLW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Bernacki
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-2
20%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
1-3
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H6-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-1)