27 Jun · 17:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LB
🇵🇱Lukasz Bernacki
ELO 1481
FormLWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Morawiec
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1549
FormLLWWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Morawiec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+68
H2H10-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-9)