27 Jun · 16:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BK
🇵🇱Bartosz Kwodawski
ELO 1359
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kwodawski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1356
FormLWLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Kwodawski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+3
H2H4-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.