27 Jun · 17:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RW
🇵🇱Rafal Wojcik
ELO 1418
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wojcik
SJ
🇵🇱Sebastian Juzek
ELO 1406
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Wojcik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+12
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.