27 Jun · 18:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1611
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Krutak
MW
🇵🇱Marcin Wozniczka
ELO 1540
FormLLWWW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Krutak
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
1-3
16%
Elo Gap+71
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)