27 Jun · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1574
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Krutak
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1605
FormWWLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Krutak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+31
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.