28 Jun · 04:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1526
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fomin
MW
🇵🇱Marcin Wozniczka
ELO 1515
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.