28 Jun · 05:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1475
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wiza
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1502
FormLWWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Wiza
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+27
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.