28 Jun · 05:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1494
FormL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Eliasz
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1500
49%
51%
Fair odds · Eliasz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+6
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.