28 Jun · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1341
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Nowak
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1369
FormLWLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Nowak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 43% · 2.30· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+28
H2H5-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.