28 Jun · 07:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1334
FormLLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sulkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1419
FormLWWLL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
0-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+85
H2H12-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-1)