28 Jun · 08:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1353
FormWLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Wnek
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1409
FormWWWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Wnek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 42% · 2.40· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+56
H2H24-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-20)