28 Jun · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1630
FormWLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Koczyba
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1627
FormWWWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+3
H2H28-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.