28 Jun · 09:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1346
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Eliasz
FJ
🇵🇱Filip Jablonski
ELO 1306
FormLWLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Eliasz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+40
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.