28 Jun · 11:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1340
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1352
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+12
H2H3-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.