28 Jun · 12:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LB
🇵🇱Lukasz Bernacki
ELO 1485
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Bernacki
AC
🇵🇱Aleksander Cichocki
ELO 1468
FormLWWLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Bernacki
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+17
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.