28 Jun · 12:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1401
FormLLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Wnek
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1340
FormLWLLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Wnek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+61
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)