28 Jun · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1328
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1359
FormWWLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+31
H2H10-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.