28 Jun · 13:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1510
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Piotrowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1502
FormWWWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+8
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.