28 Jun · 14:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AC
🇵🇱Aleksander Cichocki
ELO 1492
FormWWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Cichocki
LB
🇵🇱Lukasz Bernacki
ELO 1488
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Cichocki
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+4
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.