28 Jun · 14:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1321
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Golaszewski
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1339
FormWWWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+18
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.