28 Jun · 15:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BP
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Pacia
ELO 1398
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wojcik
RW
🇵🇱Rafal Wojcik
ELO 1409
FormLLLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Wojcik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.33· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+11
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.