28 Jun · 15:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1361
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1336
FormWLWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+25
H2H49-46
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.