28 Jun · 16:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1347
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Golaszewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1336
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+11
H2H4-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.