28 Jun · 19:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FM
🇵🇱Filip Mlynarski
ELO 1574
FormLWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Pietraszko
LP
🇵🇱Lukasz Pietraszko
ELO 1618
FormLLLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Pietraszko
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 32% · 3.17· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)