28 Jun · 19:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AW
🇵🇱Alan Wos
ELO 1553
FormWWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kuzmicz
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kuzmicz
ELO 1631
FormWLLWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Kuzmicz
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H5-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-2)