28 Jun · 19:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1462
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Krupa
PP
🇵🇱Piotr Przewlocki
ELO 1440
FormLWWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+22
H2H9-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.