28 Jun · 19:35 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
GS
🇵🇱Grzegorz Sawicki
ELO 1291
FormLWWWL
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Nowak
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1385
FormLWWLW
40%
60%
Fair odds · Nowak
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
2-3
20%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+94
H2H15-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+94)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-10)