28 Jun · 20:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1456
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1476
FormWWWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Baron
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+20
H2H69-98
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.