28 Jun · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1472
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Marud
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1466
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Marud
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+6
H2H46-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.