28 Jun · 21:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1628
FormWWLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Pruszkowski
JP
🇵🇱Jakub Pruszkowski
ELO 1697
FormWWWLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Pruszkowski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 42% · 2.40· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
16%
Elo Gap+69
H2H79-76
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (79-76)