28 Jun · 22:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1454
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Krupa
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1389
FormWLWWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+65
H2H13-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-7)