28 Jun · 23:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1478
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Baron
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1466
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Baron
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+12
H2H78-75
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.